As we approach the end of 2024, new vehicle sales in December are expected to show steady growth compared to last year, according to the latest forecast from Cox Automotive. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for December is projected to reach 16.5 million units, matching the sales pace of November and significantly increasing from 15.9 million units in December 2023. The total sales volume for December is estimated to be 1.47 million units, reflecting a 7.7% increase from November, although it remains relatively flat compared to the same month last year.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, attributes this increase in sales to several key factors, particularly the decreasing uncertainty following the U.S. election season.
Many consumers who were initially hesitant to make large purchases are now moving forward with their vehicle purchases in anticipation of policy changes that could impact pricing. “Buyers holding out for the best deal realize that now is the time to act,” Chesbrough notes. Numerous vehicle buyers are taking advantage of EV discounts that may decrease under the new administration. In contrast, others are concerned about potential tariffs that could further raise vehicle prices. This combined sense of urgency, along with an improving economic outlook, has created positive momentum.
Strong Q4 performance drives 2024 sales above initial projections
New vehicle sales in 2024 have remained steady throughout the year, buoyed by improved inventory and rising incentives. However, the sales pace has picked up since October, and the fourth quarter is expected to close with a SAAR of 16.4 million units. This strong finish has pushed total sales for 2024 to a projected 15.85 million units, marking a 2.3% increase from 2023 and slightly surpassing Cox Automotive’s initial forecast of 15.7 million units. The improvement in sales can be attributed to various factors, including lower interest rates, a more stable economic environment, and less consumer uncertainty. These conditions are expected to continue driving sales growth into 2025.
In terms of individual manufacturers, General Motors is set to retain its position as the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for 2024, with 2.7 million units projected, up 4.2% from 2023. However, Honda is the big winner in market share gains, with the brand increasing its share by half a point. Honda’s strong sales performance, particularly from its reasonably priced HR-V and Civic models, has propelled the company ahead of Stellantis, with Honda now ranking fifth on the sales chart.
Looking ahead to 2025, Cox Automotive forecasts a 3% increase in new vehicle sales. Several factors, including rising consumer confidence, improving inventory levels, and favorable financing conditions, are expected to support this growth. Additionally, advancements in EV adoption, inventory replenishment, and evolving consumer preferences will likely continue to shape the market.
