Cox Automotive shifts 2022 sales forecast due to ongoing supply issues

According to the Cox Automotive June sales estimate, U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to be constricted due to the lack of supply that continues to hamper the industry. The SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) of new-vehicle sales this month is anticipated to reach 13.8 million, up from last month’s pace of 12.7 million but significantly below last year’s record of 15.5 million.

Nearly 1.2 million units are anticipated to be sold in June, which is 7.5% fewer than the 1.3 million units sold in the same month last year. However, compared to May’s output of around 1.1 million units, this represents an increase of 7.5%.

Sales of new vehicles continue to suffer from low inventory. Since June 2021, the monthly sales volume has remained relatively stable, averaging 1.1 million units per month and only reaching a peak of 1.3 million in June 2021. Cox Automotive is reducing its full-year 2022 U.S. auto sales projection from its previous forecast of 15.3 million units to 14.4 million units since there is no apparent path for any significant recovery in new-vehicle inventory levels.

“Last June, I wrote that the concern about the supply situation could not be overstated, as we were in untested territory for the market,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive in a recent press release. “That sentiment remains, as there has been no significant shift in the conditions on the ground since last fall. Even though economic conditions have worsened in the past months, the lack of supply is still the greatest headwind facing the auto industry today.”

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