North America’s electric vehicle (EV) battery manufacturing capacity is set to expand dramatically in the coming years, setting the stage for widespread electrification. According to Argonne National Laboratory’s latest forecast, detailed in their report “Quantification of Commercially Planned Battery Component Supply in North America through 2035,” the region’s lithium-ion EV battery cell production is expected to surpass 1,200 gigawatt-hours (GWh) annually by 2030. This marks a 20% increase from the 1,000 GWh forecasted a year ago, reflecting the sum of announced battery plant investments.
In 2023, experts projected that North America’s EV battery manufacturing capacity would reach around 300 GWh annually, indicating that the industry is poised to quadruple within the next six years.
Moreover, the anticipated 1,200 GWh of battery capacity would be sufficient to produce approximately 12 million new all-electric vehicles, assuming an average battery capacity of 100 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per vehicle. If the average battery capacity is 80 kWh, this figure rises to 15 million vehicles. For context, U.S. all-electric car sales exceeded 1.1 million in 2023, indicating the potential for a tenfold increase in market size.
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office highlighted that most battery investments will be concentrated near vehicle assembly locations in the Midwest and Southeast. The proximity of battery production to vehicle assembly is crucial for minimizing shipping time and transport costs.
While these projections are promising, they are contingent on sustained EV demand and the expected profitability of these investments. Any signs of a market slowdown or challenges in achieving profitable, mass-market electric cars could lead to adjustments in these plans.
Once manufacturers produce battery cells, they assemble them into battery pack systems locally, further supporting the efficient scaling of EV production across North America.
