On the Dash:
- Wholesale used-vehicle prices fell 0.2% month-over-month but remained 2% higher than a year ago.
- BEVs led the market with a 6.4% year-over-year increase in wholesale values, outperforming ICE vehicles.
- Retail used-vehicle sales declined 3.9% from August, while new-vehicle sales remained strong at a 16.4 million SAAR.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices edged slightly lower in September 2025, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), reflecting seasonal adjustments and ongoing shifts in the auto market. On a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis, the index fell 0.2% from August to 207.0 but remained 2% higher than a year ago. Non-adjusted values rose 0.1% month-over-month and were up 2.1% year-over-year.
The slight monthly decline coincided with the end of federal EV tax incentives, which drove elevated sales in both new and used electric vehicles. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) wholesale values led the market, rising 0.8% month-over-month and 6.4% year-over-year. Non-electric vehicles, in contrast, experienced a 1% year-over-year increase. Overall, wholesale trends remained strong despite modest seasonal depreciation.
Three-year-old vehicles experienced aggregate declines of 1.6% over the last four weeks of September, which is slightly above historical norms. Daily MMR retention, which measures the average price relative to MMR, averaged 99%, a 0.8% decline from August. Meanwhile, the average daily sales conversion rate fell to 58.3%, still above typical seasonal levels.
Market segments showed mixed performance. Luxury vehicles led the gains, influenced by BEV demand, which increased 2.3% year-over-year. SUVs rose 0.7%, while trucks and mid-size sedans declined slightly. Compact cars fell 6.5% compared with September 2024. Month-over-month, mid-size sedans posted a modest gain of 0.2%, while luxury vehicles, SUVs, pickups, and compact cars posted minor declines.
Retail used-vehicle sales fell 3.9% from August and were down 2% from last year, though average listing prices increased 1.5% over four weeks. Days’ supply rose slightly to 46, compared with 44 days in August and 43 days in September 2024. New-vehicle sales maintained strong momentum, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.4 million units, up 6.7% from last year but down 14.2% from August. Fleet deliveries, including rentals and government purchases, rose nearly 12% year-over-year.
Consumer confidence declined in September. The Conference Board Consumer Index fell by 3.6 points, down to 94.2, while the University of Michigan sentiment index decreased 5.3% to 55.1. Plans to purchase vehicles in the next six months fell, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty. Gas prices eased slightly to $3.16 per gallon, down 3 cents from August and 1% from a year ago.
Overall, the wholesale market remained resilient, supported by strong EV demand. However, seasonal depreciation and broader economic concerns tempered growth.
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