In October 2024, new vehicle sales are expected to rise by 10% compared to September, while maintaining a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.8 million. This increase in sales volume stems from the extra selling days, as October has 27 selling days—four more than last month and two more than in October 2023. Overall, we anticipate that sales volume will finish 7.9% higher than in October 2023, reflecting the consistent performance trend in the automotive market over the past 18 months.
Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough notes, “Neither tricks nor treats are expected from October new-vehicle sales. The sales pace has been bouncing between 15-16 million, and this month is no different.” Several factors are at play, with recent weather disruptions in the Southeast potentially dampening some business operations, while interest rate cuts and stock market gains are likely providing market support.
A robust new-vehicle inventory and rising incentives are also contributing to the stable sales volume. Throughout 2024, incentives for new vehicle purchases have steadily increased, with September recording the highest level of incentives since early 2021. However, listing prices for new vehicles have gradually risen in recent weeks, according to Cox Automotive’s vAuto Live Market View, suggesting ongoing market adjustments.
Overall, October’s sales are buoyed by a combination of factors, including favorable market conditions and increased selling days. These factors help maintain the momentum in new vehicle sales as the industry navigates both challenges and opportunities.
