The first 15 days of October saw a 1.6% drop in wholesale used car prices from September. The midmonth Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 211.0, representing a 3.3% decrease from October 2022. The seasonal adjustment lessened the decline. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of October fell 2.2% compared to September, while the unadjusted price was down 5.5% year over year.
However, “There are still concerns,” stated Chris Frey, senior manager of Cox Automotive’s Economic and Industry Insights. “Any combination of increased interest rates, higher gas prices, a government shutdown, or an extension of ongoing international conflicts might cause consumer sentiment to deteriorate further, harming sales of used retail vehicles.”
In the first part of October, seasonally adjusted prices were lower year over year in almost all key market categories, although pickup trucks experienced a 0.4% increase. SUV sales decreased by 2.9%, less than the 3.3% industry-wide loss. Vans, luxury automobiles, midsize cars and compact cars saw respective declines of 4.5%, 6.3%, 5.9% and 9.3%, more than the industry average. With differing outcomes, the key segments witnessed a declining pricing performance from September. Compact vehicles, at 1.4%, and pickups, at 1.1%, lost less than the industry. While Luxury was flat, vans, SUVs, and midsize vehicles had month-over-month reductions of 2.3%, 1.9%, and 1.8%.
The used sales estimates based on observed changes in advertised units tracked by vAuto, a Cox Automotive firm specializing in inventory management, often match the retail used-vehicle sales estimates based on registration data. According to this month’s vAuto projections, September’s sales volume for used retail automobiles decreased by 10% from August. Volumes decreased by 2% from the previous year, the lowest since June. In November, updated September registration data will be accessible.