On the Dash:
- March SAAR holds at 15.8 million, signaling a stable but constrained market.
- Sales volume of 1.37 million units rises 14.3% from February but falls 14.2% year over year.
- EV sales down 28% in Q1, while hybrids continue to gain traction.
The U.S. new-vehicle sales pace in March is expected to remain essentially unchanged from February, finishing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of approximately 15.8 million, according to Cox Automotive.
The pace is nearly 12% lower year over year, largely reflecting a comparison to March 2025, when pre-tariff buying pushed the SAAR to 17.9 million, a four-year high. Affordability challenges and broader economic uncertainty are shaping current market conditions.
New-vehicle sales volume in March is forecast at 1.37 million units, down 14.2% from March 2025 but up 14.3% from February. March is typically a stronger sales month and often posts gains over February levels.
Cox Automotive economists said the market has settled into a more stable but slower growth pattern following volatility in 2025. Sales in the first quarter of 2026 have remained consistent with the final three months of 2025, holding in the upper-15-million range but below last spring’s highs.
Affordability remains a central constraint as higher vehicle prices, ongoing inflation, and still-elevated interest rates continue to weigh on demand, particularly among lower-income buyers.
However, performance across segments has been uneven. For instance, compact cars and compact SUVs have declined more than the overall market, while full-size trucks and SUVs also posted declines in the first quarter. Midsize segments are expected to grow, supported by new product launches and consumers trading down from higher-priced vehicles.
Among automakers, Toyota, Hyundai, and Nissan are expected to post share gains in the first quarter, with Nissan supported by strong Rogue and Pathfinder sales. Stellantis is also forecast to see year-over-year share growth.
EV demand has softened following the loss of federal tax incentives, with Q1 EV sales expected to decline 28% year over year. Hybrid vehicles, led by Toyota and Honda, continue to show solid growth.
For full-year 2026, Cox Automotive forecasts a sales pace of 15.8 million, down about 2.6% from 2025. The outlook assumes geopolitical tensions and oil-price volatility ease, though prolonged disruption could pose additional downside risk.
