On the Dash:
- Tesla’s decision to publish delivery estimates signals management expects weaker sales than many investors had anticipated.
- The company is on pace for a second straight annual decline in vehicle deliveries despite late-year demand surges tied to expiring tax credits.
- Tesla stock remains up for the year, though it continues to lag the broader market.
Tesla has published a series of analyst sales estimates on its website, an uncommon move that suggests fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries may fall short of broader market expectations.
The company posted figures on its website showing that analysts on average expect Tesla to deliver 422,850 vehicles in the fourth quarter, a 15% decline from a year earlier. That compares with a Bloomberg-compiled average of 440,907 vehicles, which represents an 11% drop.
Tesla’s investor relations team has long compiled delivery estimates and shared them selectively with analysts and investors, but the company has not previously published the figures publicly. Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Advisors, described the move as highly unusual, suggesting it was intended to distribute Tesla’s internal consensus as widely as possible. He said deliveries are likely to land near 420,000 vehicles.
The disclosure comes as Tesla is on track for a second consecutive annual decline in vehicle sales. The company’s internal estimates indicate about 1.6 million deliveries for the year, down more than 8% from a year earlier. Tesla’s delivery projections for the next three years are also below averages compiled by Bloomberg.
Additionally, Tesla shares fell as much as 1.3% on Tuesday after the estimates were published, then recovered to erase the decline.
The sales slowdown earlier in the year followed Tesla’s decision to retool production lines at each of its assembly plants for the redesigned Model Y, the company’s best-selling vehicle. That period also coincided with CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing role in the Trump administration.
Deliveries rebounded to a record in the third quarter as U.S. consumers rushed to buy electric vehicles ahead of the expiration of $7,500 federal tax credits at the end of September. Tesla later sought to offset the loss of those incentives by introducing lower-priced versions of the Model Y sport utility vehicle and Model 3 sedan, each priced under $40,000.
Despite the sales slump, Tesla stock remains higher for the year. Shares were up 14% through Monday’s close, trailing the 17% gain in the S&P 500 index.
