When automakers release their new-vehicle sales figures, it’s expected to show significant year-over-year growth and a slight improvement over last month. The market’s strong rebound from being supply-chain limited over the previous two years continues to be the primary driver of these increases. The seasonally adjusted sales rate (SAAR) for July is anticipated to be close to 15.9 million, higher than the 15.7 million level from June and the 15.1 million from May. Despite significant interest rate rises, sales have been surprisingly strong this year, and July is predicted to continue the trend.
On average, sales volume is projected to be 15.3% higher in July than it was in the supply-constrained market of the previous year. However, the U.S. vehicle sales volume is anticipated to slightly decline from June, mostly as a result of July having one fewer selling day than June.
According to Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, “The return of supply has been the key driver of sales this year, which is roughly 80% higher than in 2022. Still, rental and business fleets fund at least a portion of the purchase of all these cars and trucks, not individual customers.”
Highlights of the July 2023 Sales Forecast:
- The estimated annual sales pace for July will be close to 15.9 million, up 2.6 million from last July’s rate and up from June’s 15.7 million.
- July’s sales volume is expected to rise 15.3% from one year ago and reach 1.32 million units.
- July 2023 has 25 selling days, one fewer than last month and a year ago.
Despite strong sales in 2023, a slowdown is anticipated in the year’s second half. Economic headwinds from high prices and tighter credit will undoubtedly slow the new-vehicle sales recovery.