- Asian brands are forecast to top half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second straight quarter.
- Hyundai Motor Group is projected to outsell Ford as the Detroit Three head for record-low share.
- Cox raised its full-year forecast to 16.1 million units as demand holds up despite higher rates.
According to the latest Cox Automotive forecast, GM and Ford are projected to lose U.S. market share in the third quarter as Asian brands account for more than half of new-vehicle sales for a second straight quarter. The Detroit Three are expected to fall to just over 36% of the market, the lowest level on record, Cox said in its September sales forecast released Thursday.
Cox expects third-quarter sales of 4.12 million vehicles, down slightly from a year ago. Even so, it raised its full-year forecast to 16.1 million units from 15.8 million, with retail sales now projected at 13.1 million and fleet sales at 3 million.
GM and Ford slip, Asian brands gain
GM remains the top seller for both the quarter and the year to date, though its sales and market share have softened from a year ago. Ford is projected to post the steepest share decline of any automaker in the forecast and to fall behind Hyundai Motor Group in quarterly sales.
Stellantis is the exception among the Detroit Three. Its third-quarter sales are projected to dip, but year-to-date sales are up 2.8%, lifting its share of the market.
Toyota’s growth would narrow its gap with GM to about 29,000 vehicles for the quarter, while Honda is forecast to post the largest percentage gain among the automakers Cox tracks. Consumers continue to move toward hybrids and passenger cars, segments where Asian automakers hold significant advantages, according to Cox. The company expects the shift in market share to continue through the rest of the year.
Q3 sales projections
Here are Cox’s third-quarter sales projections for selected automakers, with year-to-date market share:
- GM: 671,706 vehicles, down 5.2%; 16.7% share, down 0.7 points
- Toyota: 642,707 vehicles, up 2.2%; 15.6% share, up 0.4 points
- Hyundai Motor Group: 511,421 vehicles, up 6.5%; 11.9% share, up 0.7 points
- Ford: 504,172 vehicles, down 7.1%; 12.5% share, down 0.9 points
- Honda: 402,580 vehicles, up 12.2%; 9.6% share, up 0.7 points
- Stellantis: 317,330 vehicles, down 1.3%; 7.8% share, up 0.3 points
- Volkswagen: 143,112 vehicles, down 9.5%; 3.4% share, down 0.2 points
- Tesla: 123,880 vehicles, down 31.0%; 3.0% share, down 0.7 points
Overall market stays resilient
The overall market is holding up against several headwinds, Cox said. Strong fleet sales, wealthier buyers and more access to credit have kept demand steady despite high inflation and historically low consumer confidence, said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.
Affordability remains a pressure point for buyers. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point on Sept. 16 to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first hike in more than three years. Interest rates also ranked among dealers’ top concerns in Cox’s third-quarter Dealer Sentiment Index, cited by 34% of those surveyed.
Even so, the market has consistently outperformed expectations despite higher fuel prices, elevated interest rates and softer consumer sentiment, and demand has proven durable heading into the fourth quarter, said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive.
For September, Cox projects a 6.5% sales increase from a year ago, with the seasonally adjusted annual rate at 16.3 million. That pace would be down from 16.6 million a year ago and 16.8 million in August. Part of the year-over-year gain reflects the calendar, as September has one more selling day than a year ago and Labor Day sales shifted into September this year.
