On The Dash:
- Musk predicted Tesla’s unsupervised self-driving service will expand nationwide by the end of 2026.
- Musk said AI will handle 90% of all miles driven within a decade.
- Federal regulators issued fresh safety recalls against both Tesla and Waymo in recent weeks.
Elon Musk said Monday he expects Tesla’s unsupervised self-driving service to expand across the United States by the end of this year, even as the automaker and rival Waymo faced fresh federal safety recalls tied to their autonomous vehicle programs.
Musk predicts self-driving revolution within 10 years
Musk made the comments via video link to the Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv. He said Tesla already operates driverless vehicles without a safety monitor in Austin, Dallas, and Houston, and that the service will likely be widespread across the U.S. by the end of 2026.
“Five years from now and certainly 10 years from now … probably 90% of all distance driven will be driven by the AI in a self-driving car,” Musk said.
Scrutiny over self-driving safety
Musk’s projections come as both Tesla and Waymo face mounting scrutiny over the safety of their autonomous systems, and as federal regulators have moved to recall vehicles from both companies in recent weeks.
Earlier this month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) ordered Tesla to recall 218,868 vehicles, including Model 3, Model Y, Model S, and Model X units, over delayed rearview camera images that could increase the risk of a crash. Tesla addressed the issue with a free over-the-air software update. In January 2024, Tesla recalled roughly 200,000 vehicles for a nearly identical rearview camera software defect.
Separately, Waymo recalled approximately 3,800 robotaxis last week after identifying a risk that its vehicles could enter flooded roads at higher speeds without stopping. The recall followed an April 20 incident in San Antonio, in which an unoccupied Waymo vehicle drove into floodwater and was swept into a creek. In December 2025, Waymo issued a voluntary software recall after its vehicles illegally passed stopped school buses in Texas on 19 separate occasions.
Prior predictions fall short
Musk has made bold predictions about the future of self-driving cars that have failed to materialize.
For now, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving, or FSD, capabilities have fallen short of Musk’s repeated claims of imminent full deployment. Tesla logged zero autonomous test miles in California in 2025, and only 562 total since 2016.
Tesla received a permit to operate a ride-hailing service in Arizona last November, expanding its regulatory footprint beyond Texas. However, the company has not taken the steps required to launch a driverless robotaxi service in California, where it faces a stricter approval process.
