On the Dash:
- Q3 2025 vehicle sales are projected at 4.08 million, up 4.7% from 2024 but down 3.3% from Q2 2025.
- Fed rate cuts and the expiration of the EV tax credit drove September sales, with returning buyers signaling pent-up demand.
- Ending the EV credit may slow future EV sales, while the arrival of 2026 models puts pressure on 2025 inventory.
U.S. new car and truck sales are expected to reach 4,075,132 units in the third quarter of 2025, a 4.7% increase from the same period last year but a 3.3% decline from the second quarter of 2025, according to automotive data provider Edmunds.
The forecast suggests the market remains resilient despite concerns over tariffs and the recent expiration of the EV tax credit.
According to Edmunds’ head of insights, Jessica Caldwell, the recent Fed rate cut and the expiration of the EV tax credit helped support consumer buying sentiment. Caldwell also noted that the return of buyers with aging trade-ins indicates that pent-up demand is driving the market.
Ivan Drury, Edmunds’ director of insights, said the end of the EV tax credit triggered a September rush, but could result in an “EV hangover” in the months ahead. EVs currently make up roughly one in 22 vehicles on dealer lots, and without incentives, dealers and automakers may need creative strategies to maintain sales.
The transition to 2026 models is another factor shaping sales trends. Drury noted that inventory for new 2026 models now represents just over a third of what consumers will find on dealer lots, creating urgency for remaining 2025 vehicles.
Manufacturer sales forecast (Q3 2025)
- GM: 710,824 units, up 7.7% from Q3 2024, down 4.8% from Q2 2025
- Toyota: 635,390 units, up 17.0% year-over-year (Y/Y), down 4.7% from Q2 2025
- Ford: 544,530 units, up 8.0% Y/Y, down 11.0% from Q2 2025
- Hyundai/Kia: 483,810 units, up 12.7% Y/Y, up 2.2% from Q2 2025
- Honda: 366,751 units, flat Y/Y, down 5.4% from Q2 2025
- Stellantis: 305,912 units, down 0.3% Y/Y, down 1.6% from Q2 2025
- Nissan: 225,108 units, up 6.1% Y/Y, up 1.3% from Q2 2025
Manufacturer market share forecast
- GM: 17.4%, up 2.9% Y/Y, down 1.6% from Q2 2025
- Toyota: 15.6%, up 11.8% Y/Y, down 1.4% from Q2 2025
- Ford: 13.4%, up 3.2% Y/Y, down 8.0% from Q2 2025
- Hyundai/Kia: 11.9%, up 7.6% Y/Y, up 5.7% from Q2 2025
- Honda: 9.0%, down 4.3% Y/Y, down 2.2% from Q2 2025
- Stellantis: 7.5%, down 4.8% Y/Y, up 1.8% from Q2 2025
- Nissan: 5.5%, up 1.4% Y/Y, up 4.7% from Q2 2025
The Edmunds forecast reflects a market balancing tariffs, incentives, and consumer demand, with dealers navigating both model-year transitions and inventory challenges.
