On the Dash:
- Stable sales demand suggests that affluent buyers continue to drive showroom traffic despite broader economic concerns.
- Higher fuel prices and weak consumer sentiment remain risks dealers should monitor heading into summer.
- Strong tax refunds and stock market gains may continue supporting higher-end vehicle demand and financing activity.
U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to remain stable in May, despite economic uncertainty, high fuel prices, and geopolitical tensions, as a stronger stock market and higher-income buyers are supporting demand.
According to Cox Automotive’s latest forecasts, May’s seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is expected to be roughly 16.1 million units. This projected rate reflects an improvement from last May’s 15.6 million and an increase from April’s 15.9 million.
Total new-vehicle sales volume in May is expected to rise 0.1% year-over-year and 7% month-over-month. Notably, May will include 26 selling days, matching April but one fewer than the same month last year.
Additionally, analysts note that various competing economic pressures, such as concerns about inflation and geopolitical instability, are influencing the market. Higher fuel prices and historically low consumer sentiment are challenging vehicle demand.
However, record-high stock market performance and larger tax refunds are helping to support consumer spending. According to Cox Automotive, the market continues to operate within a range of high-15 million to low-16 million annual sales, similar to much of 2025.
Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough stated that today’s new-vehicle buyers tend to be more affluent and may be less sensitive to inflation and rising fuel costs than lower-income consumers. Chesbrough emphasized that continued stability in both the broader economy and financial markets will be crucial for maintaining vehicle sales momentum amid ongoing volatility.
