On the Dash:
- New-vehicle sales are expected to reach a 16.3 million SAAR in August, matching July’s pace despite ongoing economic uncertainty.
- Cox Automotive expects August volume to fall 8.5% year over year to 1.35 million vehicles, largely because the month has fewer selling days.
- Affluent buyers with strong credit or cash reserves continue to support demand, giving dealers a more resilient customer base despite higher interest rates.
August new-vehicle sales are on pace to match July’s performance, signaling continued resilience despite economic uncertainty, rising interest rates and ongoing trade disputes. Cox Automotive forecasts an August SAAR of 16.3 million vehicles, holding steady for the second consecutive month and landing just 200,000 below last year’s pace.
Cox Automotive expects total new-vehicle volume to reach 1.35 million units, an 8.5% decline from August 2025, with calendar shifts accounting for much of that year-over-year drop. Last year’s tally included sales tied to the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which pulled buyers into showrooms ahead of the September 2025 deadline. Labor Day also fell within the August reporting period last year, while this year’s holiday lands in September, shifting a major sales weekend outside the month entirely.
Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive, attributed some of that resilience to the profile of today’s new-vehicle buyer, citing in a company statement, “New-vehicle buyers are likely in a better position than the general consumer,” he said, pointing to buyers with higher incomes, strong credit or larger cash reserves who face less exposure to inflationary pressures than the broader market.
That customer profile could help keep demand relatively stable if the economy and stock market continue to grow despite ongoing volatility. For dealers, the steady SAAR suggests demand has not deteriorated as much as broader economic indicators might suggest. Chesbrough encouraged dealers to stay the course, saying, “The key takeaway for dealers is to stay focused during these volatile times, don’t give up,” he said. “People still need personal transportation, regardless of the economic uncertainty in the headlines.”
Because that resilience remains concentrated among well-qualified buyers, inventory, pricing and financing strategies will matter more for dealers competing over a narrower pool of shoppers as the year moves toward its final quarter.
