On the Dash:
- The Manheim index fell 1% from August to 206.2, down 0.4% from a year ago.
- Compact cars and EVs were the only major segments above year-ago values.
- Wholesale supply rose to 27.8 days while sales conversion slipped to 55.8%.
According to Cox Automotive, wholesale used-vehicle prices fell below year-ago levels in September for the first time this year. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell 1% from August to 206.2 in the first 15 days of September. The reading is adjusted for mix, mileage and seasonality. It sits 0.4% below September 2025.
Wholesale values give back the spring bounce
Unadjusted wholesale prices fell 1.1% from August in the first half of September; a typical full September brings a 0.3% decline. Prices are also down 1.1% from a year ago, as the market has returned to a level slightly below last year after a stronger-than-normal first half of 2026.
“The market has fully given back the stronger pricing trend from the spring’s tax-refund bounce and is now tracking a touch below last year,” Jonathan Gregory, Senior Director at Cox Automotive, said in the company’s analysis.
Manheim Market Report (MMR) prices for the three-year-old index fell 0.8% since the start of September, which is a sharper drop than the same period last year. MMR depreciation ran slightly above the long-term average, fitting the give-back from spring and softer demand for larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles.
Fuel prices favor compact cars and EVs
Compact cars and electric vehicles (EVs) were the only major segments with values above year-ago levels in mid-September. Gas prices have kept climbing after a record-setting Labor Day amid renewed Middle East unrest, according to Gregory. Midsize cars, pickups and SUVs, however, posted year-over-year declines that more than offset those gains. Values for larger, less fuel-efficient segments sit below where they were a year ago.
The EV Index was up 2.3% year over year and down 1.3% from August. The non-EV index was down 1.3% year over year and 1.4% from August. EV values continue to fall from their elevated spring baseline as availability improves.
Supply rises and demand softens
Wholesale supply reached 27.8 days as of Sept. 15, about 2.4 days higher than a year ago, according to Cox Automotive. At the end of August, supply stood at 27.2 days. That was up 2.5 days from August 2025 and down 1.2 days from the end of July.
Sales conversion, a key indicator of demand, averaged 55.8% in the first half of September. That is 1.4 points lower than a year ago and 0.7 points lower than August. Additionally, MMR retention averaged 99.6%, up 0.6 points from a year ago and 0.1 points from August. Retention remains near the upper end of its seasonal range.
Meanwhile, with the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time in more than three years, Cox Automotive counts the move as another potential drag on used-vehicle demand. The agency notes that higher borrowing costs and added pressure on household budgets will continue to weigh on vehicle demand.
