On the Dash:
• February new-vehicle SAAR is forecast at 15.6 million, up from January but below last year.
• Sales volume is expected to fall 3.4% year over year to 1.185 million units.
• Mid-size SUVs lead gains, while compact SUVs and cars remain under pressure.
February new-vehicle sales are expected to rebound from a weather-disrupted January but remain below year-ago levels, according to a new forecast from Cox Automotive.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate for February is projected at 15.6 million, up from January’s weather-impacted 14.9 million pace but down from 16.0 million a year earlier. Total sales volume is forecast to reach 1.185 million units, a 3.4% decline from February 2025, which had the same 24 selling days. Compared with January, February volume is expected to rise 6.9% despite having two fewer selling days.
The market continues to face pressure from high new-vehicle prices, economic uncertainty and the loss of federal electric vehicle tax credits at the end of the third quarter. The sales pace slowed in the fourth quarter of last year, and that softer trend is expected to carry into early 2026.
At the segment level, results are mixed. Mid-size SUVs and crossovers are forecast to post the strongest year-over-year gain, rising 6.5% to 198,000 units. That segment also is expected to improve 7.4% from January and account for 16.7% of total market share, up slightly month over month.
Full-size pickup trucks are projected at 160,000 units, down 1.1% from last February but up 6.4% from January. The segment’s share is expected to edge down to 13.5%.
Compact SUVs and crossovers, the largest retail segment, are forecast at 200,000 units. That represents a 9.9% decline year over year but a 7.0% increase from January. Market share is expected to hold steady at 16.9%.
Passenger cars continue to lag. Compact cars are projected at 90,000 units, down 7.5% year over year but up 10.1% from January. Mid-size cars are expected to reach 56,000 units, a 4.0% decline from last year and a 5.4% gain month over month. Combined, car segments account for just over 12% of the market.
Other segments are forecast at 481,000 units, down 4.2% from a year ago but up 6.5% from January. Their market share is expected to dip slightly to 40.6%.
Tax refund season could provide a modest lift in the coming months. The One Big Beautiful Bill, passed last July, is expected to result in higher refunds this year. That may generate a short-term boost in showroom traffic as refunds are distributed.
Even so, the broader outlook remains cautious. Affordability challenges and economic concerns are expected to weigh on demand through 2026. For dealers, the February rebound signals seasonal normalization rather than a full recovery in sales momentum.
