On the Dash:
- Strong sales conversion and MMR retention signal healthy wholesale demand heading into spring.
- Luxury and EV segments are outperforming, offering margin opportunities.
- Slightly rising supply levels remain manageable as inventory is being absorbed quickly.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices edged slightly lower in early February, but demand and year-over-year values point to a strong start to the spring selling season, according to the latest Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index.
The seasonally adjusted index fell 0.2% in the first 15 days of February to 210.0 compared with January, reflecting typical seasonal trends. Non-adjusted wholesale prices rose 1.9% from January and were up 3.1% compared with February 2025. Long-term averages suggest February prices usually increase about 0.9% for the full month.
Jonathan Gregory, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, said the market carried momentum from January into February with tax season in “full swing.”
The early-season boost is evident in the wholesale lanes, with sales conversion rates climbing to 62.5% in the first half of February, up nearly 3 points year over year and 2.4 points from January.
Additionally, Manheim Market Report (MMR) retention held above 100%, signaling strong demand even as supply ticked up slightly to 28 days. Dealers stocked inventory in anticipation of robust spring activity, with luxury vehicles leading gains and EV values firming after earlier softness driven by incentives.
MMR prices for three-year-old vehicles increased 1.3% in early February, exceeding long-term averages. However, segment performance varied: luxury vehicles posted the strongest growth, while cars saw the largest declines. EV prices rose 1.7% year over year and 0.7% from January, while non-EV prices increased 2.5% annually but slipped 0.2% month over month.
Gregory noted that lower auto loan rates and a prolonged tax refund tailwind should continue supporting wholesale values.
