Wholesale used-vehicle prices were lower in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 202.6 in March, a 0.2% year-over-year decrease. This is also lower than February’s level.
The seasonal adjustment caused the decline while non-adjusted prices rose by 2.7% month-over-month and 0.4% year-over-year. This inched the unadjusted average prices up marginally by 0.4% year-over-year.
Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, highlights that March is typically the strongest month for wholesale markets. However, the price increases in March weren’t strong enough to meet seasonal demands. The market activity at Manheim remained strong with low days’ supply, while the appreciation trend briefly peaked in mid-March but rebounded at the month’s end. He anticipates that future wholesale prices may increase due to the impact of the automotive tariffs.
The Manheim Market Report (MMR) values increased each week in March, with the final week rising 0.3%. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index posted a cumulative 1.2% gain—muted compared to the 2.3% average seen from 2014 to 2019. Market prices also exceeded MMR values, with daily MMR Retention averaging 100.5% in March, up slightly from last year but below pre-pandemic norms.
Sales conversion rates continued to climb. The average daily sales conversion rate reached 65.8%, a notable increase from 60.8% over the past three years for March. This marks a six-point rise over February and indicates strong dealer activity at auctions.
Segment-level performance was mixed. Luxury vehicles led all segments in March with a 1.1% year-over-year increase. SUVs held relatively stable, down just 0.1%, while trucks declined 0.9%. Mid-size sedans and compact cars posted the steepest declines, falling 4.2% and 6.1% year over year, respectively. On a monthly basis, luxury vehicles were the only segment to post a gain, up 0.4%, while others generally declined.
Electric vehicle (EV) values showed sharper depreciation in March. EV prices fell 2.3% from February and were down 3.2% year over year. EVs made up a record 2.7% of units sold at Manheim. In contrast, non-EV values dropped just 0.4% month-over-month and 0.9% annually.
Retail activity strengthened across the board. Used retail vehicle sales increased 19.4% from February and were up 8% from March 2024, based on vAuto data. However, average retail listing prices declined 2% over the past four weeks. Days’ supply of used vehicles dropped to 38 days by month’s end, down from 46 days in February.
New-vehicle sales rose 10.7% year-over-year in March and 29.9% from a sluggish February. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) reached 17.8 million units, up from 16.0 million in February. Retail SAAR was estimated at 15.2 million units, with fleet share decreasing to 16.5% from 19.7% a year ago.
Rental risk units sold at auction posted a 4.5% year-over-year price gain. Compared to February, those prices rose 3.4%, the strongest monthly performance since March 2023. Average mileage for rental risk units dropped 5.4% annually and nearly 10% from February, landing at the lowest March reading since 2020.
Consumer sentiment continued to slide in March. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.2%, with future expectations reaching their lowest level since 2013. University of Michigan’s index showed a 28% year-over-year decline, while Morning Consult’s daily sentiment index dipped 3.9% for the month. Inflation expectations rose, and consumer views on vehicle buying conditions hit their lowest point since late 2022. At the same time, average gas prices edged up to $3.20 per gallon—still below year-ago levels but climbing in recent weeks.
