According to the latest data from Cox Automotive, March new-vehicle sales are expected to show year-over-year growth, but signs of the market slowing are emerging.
The March SAAR is forecasted at 15.9 million, slightly up from March 2024’s 15.7 million but down from February’s 16.0 million.
Sales volume is expected to decline 1.4% year-over-year but increase over 15% from February due to seasonal factors. The rising SAAR and falling sales volume can be attributed to March’s 26 selling days, two more than the previous month and one less than last year.
March is a crucial month for the new-vehicle market as it kicks off the spring season after the slower winter months. Cox Automotive’s Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough notes that the post-election “Trump bump” appears to be fading, and economic uncertainty may dampen consumer demand.
First-quarter new-vehicle sales are expected to rise 0.6% year-over-year, reaching 3.79 million units. However, sales are 10% lower than Q4 2024’s 4.22 million units, reflecting a cooling of the market. Higher vehicle prices and lower incentives are likely contributing to the slowdown.
The SAAR for Q1 is forecasted to hit 15.8 million, an improvement from Q1 2024’s 15.5 million, though still below Q4 2024’s more vigorous sales pace of 16.5 million.
2024 was a strong year for the automotive industry, with roughly 16 million new-vehicles sold in the U.S., the highest total since pre-pandemic levels in 2020. However, growing market challenges have led Cox Automotive analysts to revise their 2025 new-vehicle sales forecast to 15.6 million, down from an initial projection of 16.3 million.
Affordability remains the most significant challenge for the automotive industry, particularly the new-vehicle market. Rapidly rising vehicle prices and reduced incentives make purchasing more difficult for consumers. Economic uncertainties also weigh on consumers as the Consumer Confidence Index fell for the fourth consecutive month by 7.2 points to 92.9.
