On the Dash:
- October new-vehicle sales should reach 1.38 million units, up 7.2% from last year.
- SAAR is forecast near 16.1 million, up from 16 million in September.
- Subcompact SUVs and compact cars lead segment growth, up 17.6% and 15.6% year over year.
Cox Automotive expects October new-vehicle sales to finish above both September and October 2025, keeping the market on the path it has followed for most of the year. The latest forecast puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) near 16.1 million, up from 16 million last month and 15.7 million a year ago.
October’s forecast puts sales volume at about 1.38 million units, up 3.6% from September and 7.2% from last October. October has 28 selling days, three more than September and one more than last year, the extra days should lift sales well above September, even though the pace historically slows in October.
Subcompact SUVs/compact cars
Six of the seven segments Cox tracks are projected to grow from last year, led by subcompact SUVs and crossovers. Segments are listed from the largest year-over-year gain to the smallest.
- Subcompact SUVs and crossovers should reach 120,000 units, up 17.6%.
- Compact cars should reach 95,000 units, up 15.6%.
- Mid-size SUVs and crossovers should reach 235,000, up 9.4%.
- Other segments combined should reach 430,000, up 7.5%.
- Compact SUVs and crossovers should reach 240,000, up 4.0%, for a 17.5% market share.
- Full-size pickups should reach 195,000, up 2.1% from last year and 2.5% from September.
- Mid-size cars are the only segment projected to fall from last year, down 2.1% to 60,000 units.
Fleet sales, affluent buyers support the market
According to Jonathan Gregory, Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, healthy fleet sales, wealthier new-vehicle buyers, and wider access to credit are keeping the market relatively strong despite many challenges. He said October should stay on the path the market has followed since March, which is basically a low-to-mid 16 million pace. Additionally, stubbornly high gas prices and historically low consumer confidence have affected new-vehicle sales less than expected. Today’s new-vehicle buyers are more affluent, so inflationary pressure may weigh on them less than on other consumers.
Dealers should plan for higher volume
Dealers should expect a bigger month than September, with the extra selling days driving most of the increase. The SAAR gain from 16 million to 16.1 million is modest.
Small and mid-size SUVs and compact cars are growing fastest year over year, so stocking and marketing in those segments align with where demand is rising. Mid-size cars face the softest demand compared to last year.
