On the Dash:
- Ford could lose up to $1 billion in operating earnings due to the Novelis aluminum plant fire, affecting F-Series production.
- The fire highlights vulnerabilities in Ford’s supply chain, with disruptions expected until early 2026.
- In Q3, Ford achieved record sales of the F-150 Lightning EV, despite facing challenges. However, experts anticipate a decline in EV demand if the federal tax credit is not extended.
Ford could see up to a $1 billion impact on operating earnings after a fire on September 16 shut down Novelis’ aluminum plant in Oswego, New York. The facility supplies roughly 40% of the aluminum sheet used in the U.S. auto industry, including the material used in Ford’s F-Series pickups, the company’s best-selling and most profitable models.
Analysts estimate the earnings hit could stem from 20,000 to 50,000 lost F-Series units in November and December. Following reports about the fire’s consequences, Ford shares dropped 1.5% to $11.74 on Wednesday, after a 6% decline the previous day.
Production at Ford’s Dearborn Truck and Rouge Electric Vehicle Center (REVC) will pause next week in response to the supply shortage. A Ford spokesperson said the company is working closely with Novelis and exploring alternative sources to minimize disruptions.
The fire is expected to keep much of the Novelis plant offline until early 2026, potentially affecting other automakers as well. Novelis, a subsidiary of India’s Hindalco Industries, has activated its global manufacturing network and partnered with industry peers to address the supply gap.
Ford’s aluminum-bodied F-150 and Super Duty trucks rely on the metal for fuel efficiency and performance. The automaker had reinstated 2025 operating income guidance of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, down from an earlier forecast of $7 billion to $8.5 billion due to U.S. tariffs. The fire adds to ongoing supply chain challenges, including a 50% tariff on imported aluminum.
Despite the disruption, Ford sold a record 10,000 F-150 Lightning EVs in Q3 ahead of the $7,500 federal tax credit expiration on September 30. CEO Jim Farley expects EV sales to decline by about half following the end of the incentive.
Ford will report third-quarter financial results on October 23, when investors will look for updates on production adjustments and the broader impact of the aluminum shortage.
