- April new-vehicle sales are headed for a third straight monthly decline, down 5.4% from a year ago.
- The market is outperforming expectations despite surging gas prices and low consumer confidence.
- Strong tax refunds and a record stock market are helping cushion the blow.
New-vehicle sales are on pace to fall for the third straight month, according to the latest Cox Automotive sales forecast. Sales volume is expected to drop 5.4% from last April and 1.9% from March. While sales are down, the report notes the market is holding up better than expected despite higher gas prices and lower consumer confidence.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), a measure of sales pace that accounts for typical fluctuations throughout the year, was lowered to 16.1 million in April. That’s down from 16.3 million in March and well below the 17.1 million rate recorded in April 2025 as tariff speculation drove buyers into dealerships.
Sales are down across all vehicle segments. Full-size pickup trucks are forecast to drop 7.1% from last April to 185,000 units. Compact car sales are expected to fall 8.3% year over year to 100,000 units. Sales of compact SUVs are down 3.9% compared to last April, while mid-size SUVs fell 1.0%. At the same time, sales of mid-size cars, the smallest segment of the market, are expected to fall to 65,000 this April, down 3.3% from last year.
The forecast blames surging gas prices, historically low consumer confidence, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and broader economic volatility for the decline. A strong tax refund season and a return to record levels in the U.S. stock market have helped offset the losses.
