On the Dash:
- February’s 1.19 million units and 15.6 million SAAR signal modest growth amid affordability pressures.
- BEV share at 5.6%, and changing incentives require careful EV inventory and pricing management.
- Rising transaction prices and a 65-day supply-and-demand-driven inventory control.
S&P Global Mobility projects that U.S. auto sales in February 2026 will reach approximately 1.19 million units, a modest rebound from January’s slow start, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) maintaining a 5.6% market share.
The forecast translates to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million units, up slightly from January’s 14.9 million SAAR but below February 2025 levels. Full-year 2026 sales are expected to total 15.98 million units, down 2% from 2025.
Chris Hopson, manager of North American light vehicle sales forecasting at S&P Global Mobility, noted February’s 6% rise from January would be one of the smallest month-to-month gains of the past decade, reflecting ongoing affordability pressures for consumers.
BEV sales and market share are expected to remain flat through the first half of 2026 as automakers and buyers adjust to the post-incentive environment. S&P Global Mobility cited the end of federal tax credits and evolving regulatory policies, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), as factors that could temper long-term BEV demand. Incentives for EVs are projected to average $10,356 per vehicle, down from $12,020 a year earlier, while incentives for non-EVs are expected to rise to $3,085.
Among major automakers, Toyota posted a 3.2% increase in U.S. sales in February to 180,950 units, led by a 22% gain in pickups. American Honda’s total rose 1.1% to 108,162 units, powered by strong hybrid and SUV demand. Hyundai and Kia recorded February sales of 65,677 and 66,005 units, up 5.9% and 4.3%, respectively, with hybrid volume surging but EV deliveries mixed. Subaru and Mazda saw declines, while luxury brand Genesis set a February record with 5,730 units.
Average retail transaction prices rose 2.7% to $46,303, with non-EVs at $46,097 and EVs at $46,528. Dealer inventory stood at 2.19 million vehicles, representing a 65-day supply, slightly higher than a year earlier. Analysts cautioned that affordability pressures, weaker EV demand, and potential geopolitical risks could continue to dampen U.S. auto sales throughout 2026.
