According to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive, new vehicle retail sales for November 2022 are expected to be somewhat flat compared to November 2021. New car retail sales are anticipated to reach 933,400 units, a 0.3% decline from November 2021.
Sales of new vehicles, including retail and non-retail transactions, are anticipated to total 1,102,300 units in November 2022, an increase of 5.6% from November last year.
“On the retail side, demand continues to exceed supply, as evidenced by continued strength in transaction prices, retailer profits, inventory turn rates and minimal manufacturer discounting. However, as inventories and interest rates rise, these metrics will show signs of either moderation or decline,” explained Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
Transaction prices for new vehicles continue to rise, though more slowly than earlier this year. With an increase of 3.1% from a year ago, the average transaction price in November is expected to set a record for the month at $45,872.
Due to the record transaction costs, consumers are forecasted to spend over $42.8 billion this month on new cars, a 7% rise from a year ago and the highest amount ever for November.
“Dealer profits are falling but remain extraordinarily strong. Total retailer profit per unit—inclusive of grosses and finance and insurance income—is on pace to be $4,359, down 15.4% from a year ago, but still more than double 2019 levels. The decline is due primarily to fewer vehicles being sold above MSRP. In November, nearly 41% of new vehicles are being sold above MSRP, which is down from 50% in July 2022,” King added.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive predict that the November SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) will reach 13.9 million units, outpacing October of this year by 1 million units.
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