According to Cox Automotive, wholesale used-vehicle prices rose in November compared to October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, a 0.2% increase year-over-year. Non-seasonally adjusted prices declined 0.1% from October and were down 1% year-over-year.
Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, Jeremy Robb, noted that wholesale values depreciated less than typical November trends. The daily MMR Retention averaged 99.6%, indicating that prices align with valuation benchmarks. This suggests dealers are pricing vehicles more in line with current market values, showing a stable and relatively strong market environment.
Compared to October, a few segments saw improvements over the industry average. Sedans outperformed with a 0.3% rise year-over-year, whereas SUVs, compact cars, and luxury vehicles fell by 0.2%, 1.4%, and 1.4%, respectively. Pickups experienced the deepest decline at 2.3%. However, month-over-month, luxury vehicles were up 1.7%, SUVs up 1.5%, and sedans up 0.9%. These segment fluctuations are important for understanding shifting consumer preferences and pricing trends within specific vehicle categories.
Electric vehicle (EV) prices rose 0.2% month-over-month but are down 11.4% year-over-year. Meanwhile, non-EVs are up 1.3% month-over-month and down 0.1% year-over-year. The contrasting performance between EVs and non-EVs may reflect broader market dynamics, with EV prices continuing to adjust to supply and demand pressures.
Retail used-vehicle sales rose 5% month-over-month and 15% year-over-year, with the average retail listing prices increasing by 0.4%. Days’ Supply decreased to 46 days, down from 55 days in November 2023, reflecting a tighter market. New vehicle sales are up 10.1% year-over-year, with volume up 1.3% month-over-month, indicating continued strong demand for both new and used vehicles.
Fleet sales decreased 4.6%, year-over-year, and the retail SAAR is estimated at 13.6 million, up 5.3% year-over-year. This uptick in retail SAAR signals robust consumer demand, even amidst some challenges in fleet sales.
In addition to these market trends, consumer confidence also showed notable improvements in November. According to The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, consumer confidence increased by 2.8% month-over-month and was up 10.6% year-over-year. This boost was driven by improved consumers’ outlook on the present and their expectations for the future. While plans to purchase a vehicle slightly declined from the highest level since December 2019 in October, they remain significantly stronger than in the previous year, indicating a solid outlook for vehicle sales going forward.
The sentiment index from the University of Michigan also rose 1.8% in November, marking a 17% increase year-over-year. This improvement in consumer sentiment reflects stronger consumer expectations, with inflation expectations for the next year dipping slightly to 2.6%. Meanwhile, the outlook for inflation in five years edged up to 3.2%, signaling a relatively stable economic outlook despite rising costs. Consumer sentiment on vehicle-buying conditions also showed notable improvement, as views of interest rates softened from earlier in the year, signaling a greater willingness to purchase vehicles despite external economic factors.
The daily index of consumer sentiment from Morning Consult also demonstrated positive trends, with a 5.6% month-over-month increase and a 16.5% rise year-over-year. This consistent upward trend in consumer sentiment could further support the ongoing growth in the new and used vehicle markets.
