On the Dash:
- Wholesale used-vehicle prices rose 1.3% in November, exceeding historical averages.
- Luxury vehicles and EVs led price gains, while compact and midsize cars declined.
- Seasonal supply and rental vehicle adjustments reflect slower year-end sales patterns.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4 in November, reflecting a 1.3% increase in wholesale used-vehicle prices compared to October after adjusting for mix, mileage, and seasonality. Non-adjusted wholesale prices, however, fell 0.3% month over month and remain flat year over year. Historically, November typically sees a 0.6% decline, making this year’s performance a modest outlier.
According to Cox Automotive’s Interim Chief Economist Jeremy Robb, November improvements followed a dip in October and were supported by rising new and used retail sales, the end of the government shutdown, and lower APR rates. However, consumers may see further tailwinds in January as lower tax withholding boosts take-home pay.
The Manheim Market Report (MMR) three-year-old index declined 1.9% in November, slightly exceeding the typical 1.7% drop. MMR retention averaged 98.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from October and 50 basis points year over year. Sales conversion rose to 57.2%, up 2.9 points from October and 5.2 points above the three-year average, suggesting a modest strengthening of demand.
By segment, luxury vehicles led gains, while compact and midsize cars experienced the largest year-over-year declines. Additionally, the EV Index rose 2.3% month over month and 6.1% year over year following the expiration of federal EV tax credits, while the Non-EV Index increased 1.3% month over month but fell 0.1% year over year.
Wholesale days’ supply increased to 30.1 days, up 2.2 days from October and 1.3 days year over year, reflecting typical year-end seasonal shifts. Rental vehicle prices declined 4.3% month over month and 3.3% year over year, while average mileage fell 9.1% over the same period. Historically, November supply averages around 32 days, as holiday-season slowdowns temper sales.
Despite modest overall gains, luxury and EV segments continue to outperform the overall market, highlighting strong demand for higher-end vehicles and electrified options. Compact and midsize cars remain under pressure, while seasonal adjustments in supply and rental prices indicate the market is returning to pre-pandemic patterns.
