First half 2021 automotive sales analysis – Tyson Jominy, VP of Data at J.D. Power

After coming off 18 million-plus SAAR in Q2 of this year, the big question now, is if this momentum will continue through the remainder of 2021. Joining the show today to shed some light on this topic, is Tyson Jominy, Vice President of Data and Analytics for J.D. Power.

Recent data has shown that first half industry sales are flat, but retail sales are up 9%. Jominy says that this is a dynamic that has been trending for a while, however, retail sales are still very strong. On the flip side, fleet sales are down 37% in the first half of the year. Jominy adds that Q3 sales will be rocky, and we’ll have to watch out for those SAARs (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

Jominy forecasts that the automotive industry will more than likely see SAARs in the 14 million range. That is what analysts are seeing so far in July, amid Summer sales events. And frankly, Jominy says that there is not enough inventory right now to support those high SAARs.

First half transaction prices are up 14%, but monthly payments are up only 7%. Jominy says there are three pressures that have driven transaction prices up: dealers holding for gross, automakers cutting back on incentives, and prioritizing better option vehicles for semiconductor chips. The industry narrowly missed $40,000 ATP in June, but the industry overall is up 12% year-over-year.

Millennials continue their takeover of the industry as well, says Jominy. Millennial sales are up 22% and down 3% for Baby Boomers. Millennials are leading the industry in both growth and total numbers now. They have different expectations and the way dealers go to market might have to change. 

To hear more from J.D. Power’s Tyson Jominy, watch the complete interview above.

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