On the Dash:
- October new-vehicle sales reached a 15.54 million-unit SAAR, down 0.9% year over year, while the year-to-date SAAR was 16.05 million units.
- Conventional hybrids accounted for 15.7% of year-to-date sales, up 3.1 percentage points, while battery-electric vehicles fell to a 6.2% share.
- The average new-vehicle payment rose to $823 in October, up 2.6% year over year, as the average finance rate increased to 6.81%.
According to NADA’s latest Market Beat report, new light-vehicle sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.54 million units in October 2026, down 0.9% from October 2025. However, year-to-date SAAR through October stands at 16.05 million units, down 1.8% from the same period in 2025. Given the current sales pace, the forecast predicts that full-year sales will meet and likely exceed 16 million units.
While conventional hybrids accounted for 15.7% of all new vehicle sales through October, up 3.1 percentage points year over year, they’re selling on dealer lots in about half the time it takes for traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. According to September 2025 J.D. Power data, the average turnover for conventional hybrids was 26 days, compared to 53 days for ICE vehicles. However, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to lose market share, accounting for just 6.2% of year-to-date new light vehicle sales, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous year.
In October, the estimated average monthly payment for a new vehicle finance contract reached $823, up 2.6% year over year, according to J.D. Power. The average interest rate on new vehicle finance contracts rose to 6.81%, up 19 basis points from the previous year. Affordability remains a significant challenge for consumers and the automotive industry as a whole.
Medium- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, and the markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate by an additional 25 basis points at its final meeting of the year in December. These factors suggest potentially higher borrowing costs going forward. Despite ongoing affordability challenges, the forecast does not expect a decrease in consumer demand during the final two months of 2026, as new vehicle demand has remained strong.
