On the Dash:
- June new-vehicle sales projected to rise 3.6% to 1,363,800 units, JD Power said
- SAAR expected to reach 16.5 million, up 0.8 million year over year
- Negative equity hits 29.5% of June trade-ins as monthly payments reach record high
New-vehicle demand held steady through the close of the first half of 2026, according to the latest data from JD Power and GlobalData.
Total new-vehicle sales for June, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,363,800 units, a 3.6% increase year over year. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate is expected to hit 16.5 million units, up 0.8 million from June 2025.
Retail sales show a softer half-year trend. New-vehicle retail sales for June are projected at 1,114,700 units, a 2.7% increase from a year ago. But retail sales for the first half of 2026 are forecast to fall 4.1% from the same period in 2025.
Year-over-year comparisons require context from 2025, when tariff fears reshaped buying patterns.
“Sales in March and April of 2025 were inflated as consumers rushed to showrooms and ‘pulled ahead’ their purchases ahead of anticipated tariffs,” said Thomas King, President of OEM Solutions at JD Power.
Affordability remains a concern. The average transaction price of a new vehicle has risen to $46,387, up 0.8% from a year ago. Average monthly finance payments climbed 3.4% to $813, the highest ever recorded for the month of June.
Negative equity is another growing concern. Nearly a third of all trade-ins, 29.5%, carried negative equity in June, up 1.4 percentage points from a year ago. To manage payments, 13.6% of loans now carry terms of 84 months or longer.
Total retail consumer expenditure is projected to rise to $49.4 billion in June, an increase of $4.2 billion from a year ago.
