On the Dash:
- The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 2% in October to 202.9, marking the sharpest depreciation of 2025.
- EV values dropped 3% after tax credit expirations, while luxury vehicles outperformed the broader market.
- Wholesale supply rose to 28 days but remains below average, signaling continued balance in used-vehicle inventory.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices dropped in October, with the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) falling 2% from September to 202.9, according to Cox Automotive. The decline, adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality, reflects the sharpest depreciation of the year as dealers slowed activity ahead of winter. Despite the monthly dip, values remain nearly unchanged compared to October 2024.
Unadjusted wholesale prices were down 3.7% from September but remain 0.2% higher than a year ago. Typically, October shows an average decline of 1.5% in non-adjusted values, but this year’s drop was more pronounced as 2026 model-year vehicles made up nearly half of new-car inventory, adding pressure to used-vehicle prices.
October often marks the highest level of depreciation for wholesale markets, influenced by increased new-model availability and seasonal slowdowns. However, used retail sales gained momentum later in the month, tightening inventory levels and helping to slow depreciation by the final week. Stronger retail demand and limited supply could lead to milder depreciation trends through the rest of the fourth quarter.
The Manheim Market Report (MMR) showed that prices for three-year-old vehicles declined 2.3% in October. MMR retention held steady at 99%, down slightly from last year, while sales conversion fell to 54.9%, signaling a normal seasonal softening in demand. Even with the dip, conversions remain stronger than the recent three-year average.
Segment performance continued to diverge. Luxury vehicles once again outperformed the overall market, supported by higher electric vehicle (EV) prices, while compact and midsize cars saw the steepest year-over-year declines. EV values, which fell 3% in October following the expiration of federal tax credits, remain up nearly 4% compared to last year. Non-EV values dropped 2.2% for the month and are now down slightly year over year.
At the end of October, wholesale supply rose to 28 days, up two days from September but still below the long-term average of 30. The tighter supply and steady retail demand point to a balanced market heading into the final months of 2025.
