Cox Automotive projects that July’s U.S. new-vehicle sales will hold steady at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million. This marks a slight increase from June’s 15.3 million pace but falls short of the 15.8 million level recorded in July of last year. When adjusted for calendar differences, overall sales volumes will appear slightly up year over year, though the data is skewed by an extra selling day.
The market has largely returned to its two-year trend of mid-15-million SAAR levels after buyers accelerated purchases in March and April in response to President Trump’s impending import tariffs.
According to Cox Automotive’s Charlie Chesbrough, persistently high prices, elevated interest rates, and rising costs due to tariffed inventory are weighing on consumer demand. Although inventory has improved, these economic headwinds are expected to limit further sales growth heading into the second half of the year.
Here’s why it matters:
For dealers, the return to flat sales signals ongoing pressure on showroom traffic and buyer affordability. While inventory conditions have improved, demand remains fragile, with little evidence of a rebound in sight. Dealers must prepare for a softening market in the coming months as tariff-related costs filter through the supply chain, potentially driving up retail prices further. Strategic planning around pricing, incentives, and inventory management will be critical to sustaining profitability through the remainder of 2025.
Key takeaways:
- July SAAR forecast at 15.6 million
July’s SAAR is forecast at 15.6 million, consistent with a two-year trend excluding tariff-driven surges. - Sales volume appears up slightly
Projected sales of 1.30 million units represent modest gains of 2.5% from June and 1.2% year-over-year, aided by more selling days. - Tariff impact lingers
After a tariff-driven buying surge in March and April, the market has returned to pre-spike levels. - Affordability still a barrier
High vehicle prices and interest rates continue to suppress demand despite healthier inventories. - Outlook remains cautious
Cox Automotive warns that retail sales will likely decline in the coming months unless economic conditions strengthen.
