Analysts from Edmunds predict that 15.7 million new cars will be sold in 2024 due to competing market pressures, which should keep new vehicle sales largely stable. The prediction, calculated using Edmunds data, shows a 1% rise over the previously projected 15.5 million new car sales in 2023. The market share of electric vehicles (EVs) is predicted to increase to 8% of all new car sales in 2024 from 6.9% as of November 2023.
Jessica Caldwell, head of analytics at Edmunds, notes, “While the upcoming year holds the promise of further increased inventory and enticing deals that consumers have eagerly awaited, 2023’s high-interest rates are expected to linger, provoking conflicting market dynamics.”
Edmunds experts have compiled a list of the three major industry trends they believe will influence the roads in 2024:
Following an explosive rise, new vehicle prices will level off. The COVID-19 pandemic caused car prices to increase due to low credit rates and supply constraints. However, Edmunds’ data shows that prices have peaked due to increased inventory and incentives. Moreover, more affordable options are selling faster than expensive ones, making them harder to find. For example, vehicles priced under $50K sell faster (30 days) than those over (47 days), reversing the pattern observed from fall 2020 through fall 2021.
EVs continue to disrupt brand loyalty. According to Edmunds, luxury car owners are trading in their vehicles for mainstream-branded EVs at a higher rate. For instance, the report shows that 13% of mainstream EV trade-ins in 2023 were from owners of luxury vehicles, while only 6% of luxury car trade-ins generally involve mainstream brands. In addition, EVs attract a wider range of brand trade-ins, with 59% of new EV purchases involving trade-ins from other brands, compared to 48% in non-EV purchases. This gives EV manufacturers a chance to win over buyers without brand loyalty, as EV adoption is still in its early stages.
Hybrid sales will increase as automakers reevaluate their electrification strategies. Edmunds’ analysis shows that the shift towards fully electric vehicles has slowed. For most Americans looking for electrified cars, hybrids are a more comfortable option. The data also shows that the hybrid market share grew by 99%, from 4.9% in November 2022 to 9.7% in November 2023. Conversely, the share of EVs climbed by only 25% within the same time frame.
