Cox Automotive’s latest data reveals that wholesale used vehicle prices fell by 0.5% in September, reversing a two-month trend of increases. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 203.0, marking a significant decline of 5.3% compared to the same period last year. Despite this overall decrease, non-seasonally adjusted values fell only slightly, with a mere 0.1% drop from August and a 4.9% decrease year over year.
Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, explained, “Wholesale values reversed course and turned negative over the month of September after rising in July and August.” He noted that while non-adjusted prices typically decline in September, this year’s decrease was less severe than usual. The retail used-vehicle market is witnessing lower prices year over year, which is positively impacting retail sales. The average retail listing price for a used vehicle is currently $25,278, down 0.7% over the last month and approximately 6% compared to last year. Despite a slight decrease in used retail vehicle sales from August to September, sales rose 9% year over year, with forecasts suggesting 2024 will close at 19.9 million used-vehicle sales, a 3.1% increase from 2023.
The impact of Hurricane Helene on used vehicle demand and prices appears to be minimal, especially when compared to the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Although the devastation from Hurricane Helene is still being assessed, initial reports indicate that the demand for used vehicles and pricing will not experience significant changes. The Manheim team is actively monitoring market patterns post-Hurricane Helene to see if trends emerge similar to those observed after significant storms like Harvey, Sandy, and Katrina.
Looking ahead, the revised forecast for used vehicle values at the end of 2024 suggests a year-over-year decline of just 0.6%, indicating a flat movement in the fourth quarter. “September was a return to normal in many ways,” stated Cox Automotive’s Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke. “Our expectations for Q4 follow a similar pattern: all signs indicate that used vehicle values will remain flat through the remainder of the year.” The outlook for 2025 is even more promising, with a projected increase in used-vehicle values of 2.4% by the end of the year and an anticipated 2.6% gain for 2026, signaling a trend of reduced depreciation in the years to come.
