On the Dash:
- Analysts expect Tesla to deliver about 461,974 vehicles in Q3, roughly 7% below last year’s record.
- Cox Automotive’s forecast puts Tesla’s US sales down 31% after the federal EV tax credit expired.
- EU registrations rose 52.7% in August while China retail sales fell 12.43%.
Tesla is expected to report about 461,974 vehicle deliveries for the third quarter, roughly 7% fewer than the 497,099 delivered a year ago, according to the consensus posted on Tesla’s investor relations page on Sept. 29. The company will report results later today. The consensus is based on 24 analysts and has a median of 463,406. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries are expected to total 450,712, with all other models accounting for 11,285.
According to Tesla’s release, the year-earlier quarter set a delivery record. U.S. buyers rushed to claim the federal EV tax credit before it expired on Sept. 30, 2025. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated the credit, which was worth up to $7,500, NPR reported.
U.S. sales illustrate the shift. Cox Automotive’s third-quarter forecast puts Tesla’s U.S. sales at 123,880, down 31% from 179,525 a year earlier. Europe is moving in the opposite direction. Tesla registered 12,547 vehicles in the EU in August, up 52.7%, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Registrations through August totaled 142,165, up 65.9%.
China presents a mixed picture. Tesla’s retail sales in the country fell 12.43% in August to 50,047 vehicles, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association. Exports from Shanghai rose 38.71% to 36,119 vehicles. Over the first eight months, exports accounted for 51.17% of Tesla China’s wholesale sales, up from 29.94% a year earlier.
Chinese brands are gaining ground in an increasingly crowded market. Bloomberg reported that the automaker has offered end-of-quarter discounts on the Model 3 and Model Y. Analysts expect full-year deliveries to reach about 1.77 million, based on estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would mark modest growth after two consecutive annual declines.
Investors are paying closer attention to Tesla’s push into autonomous driving, AI and robotics than to its car sales. They’re also waiting to see whether speculation about a SpaceX merger turns into something concrete. Spending on these projects is expected to exceed $25 billion this year. Shares are down more than 20% for the year through Wednesday’s close.
The company also has product events on its calendar. Public rides in the Cybercab began in Austin on Sept. 3, and Electrek reported that the Semi launch was scheduled for late September. The Roadster demonstration, originally planned for Oct. 1, was moved to Oct. 15 because of weather.
