On the Dash:
- September new-vehicle sales are expected to grow 6% year-over-year, with a SAAR of 16.2 million despite fewer selling days.
- EV sales reached a Q3 record of 410,000 units, about 10% of total sales, fueled by expiring federal tax credits.
- The Big Four automakers — GM, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai — are driving market growth, while others see minimal gains or declines.
U.S. new-vehicle sales are projected to rise in September, reflecting continued market resilience despite economic uncertainty and shifting policy. Cox Automotive forecasts the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, for September at 16.2 million units, up from 15.8 million a year earlier and slightly higher than August’s 16.1 million pace. Overall, sales volume is expected to increase 6% year-over-year, while declining 14.9% from the previous month due to fewer selling days.
The third quarter saw strong consumer demand, supported by low inflation, steady unemployment, and a healthy stock market. A significant part of this growth stems from high demand for electric vehicles, as consumers rush to make purchases before the $7,500 federal tax credit expires at the end of September.
Electric vehicle sales are on track to set a quarterly record. Cox Automotive estimates that 410,000 EVs will be sold in Q3, a 21.1% increase from the same period in 2024 and more than 30% above Q2 figures. EVs are expected to account for roughly 10% of all new-vehicle sales, surpassing the previous peak of 8.7% in Q4 2024. EV sales are expected to slow in Q4 as incentives expire, although long-term growth remains likely.
Overall, Q3 new-vehicle sales are forecast to climb 6.2% year-over-year but fall 1.6% compared to Q2. The majority of gains are expected from the four largest automakers — General Motors, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai — which are projected to post combined sales growth of 11.2%. Other automakers are expected to see minimal gains of just 0.1%. Year-to-date, the Big Four have increased sales by 9.1%, while other automakers have experienced a 2% decline.
Looking ahead, analysts anticipate that market conditions will become more challenging. EV sales are likely to drop in the final quarter, while higher import costs and new tariffs could push vehicle prices upward.
However, the strong performance in Q3 has improved the industry outlook. The full-year forecast has been raised to a range of 15.8 million to 16.4 million units, with 16.1 million units as the most likely outcome.
