On the Dash:
- Toyota’s hybrid strategy continues to resonate with consumers as EV demand softens.
- The projected 83,255-unit gap marks the closest sales race between Toyota and GM since 2021.
- Cox forecasts hybrid sales will rise 10% while EV sales fall 23.3% during the first half of 2026.
Toyota is closing in on General Motors (GM) in the U.S. sales race as hybrid demand continues to grow while EV sales decline.
According to the latest Cox Automotive forecasts, Toyota’s U.S. sales will increase nearly 1% through the first half of 2026 to 1.25 million vehicles. During that same period, GM’s sales are expected to fall 7.2% to 1.33 million vehicles.
The narrowest gap
The projected gap between the automakers stands at 83,255 vehicles, the narrowest margin since Toyota surpassed GM in U.S. sales for the first time in 2021. That year, supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic helped Toyota claim the top spot. Outside of 2021, however, GM has led U.S. vehicle sales every year since 1931.
Charlie Chesbrough, Senior Economist and Senior Director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive, said Toyota’s momentum could create a competitive challenge for GM by the end of the year. While Chesbrough stopped short of predicting that Toyota would surpass GM, he described the current sales trends as “concerning for General Motors.”
Toyota has strengthened its position by expanding its product lineup while continuing to invest heavily in hybrid vehicles. The automaker has long been a leader in hybrid technology and has recently added new battery-electric models to its portfolio.
Meanwhile, GM has adopted a distinct strategy by focusing on all-electric vehicles instead of hybrids, which the company often considers a transitional technology. Currently, the Corvette is GM’s sole hybrid model, while Cadillac and other GM brands are expanding their EV offerings.
Broader outlook
Cox Automotive expects overall new-vehicle sales to decline 3% through the first half of the year compared with 2025, including a 0.5% drop during the second quarter. The firm also forecasts EV sales will fall by 23.3% in the first half of 2026, while hybrid sales are expected to increase by about 10%.
Looking to second-quarter results, Cox expects Honda, Volkswagen, and Stellantis to post second-quarter sales gains, while Tesla, Ford, and GM are projected to record the largest declines.
