On the Dash:
- Wholesale used-vehicle prices rose 0.3% in early September, outperforming typical seasonal declines.
- EV values remain strong with a 5.5% year-over-year gain, while non-EVs increased just 1.4%.
- Consumer sentiment fell 4.8% in September and is now down 21% year-over-year, signaling pressure on retail demand.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices ticked upward in the first half of September, signaling stronger-than-usual demand as the market continues to resist typical seasonal depreciation patterns. According to Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, prices on a mix-, mileage- and seasonally adjusted basis inched from 207.4 in August to 207.5, representing virtually no month-over-month change but a 2.2% increase from September 2024.
On an unadjusted basis, wholesale prices rose 0.3% from August and were 2.3% higher year-over-year. Historically, non-adjusted prices decline by 0.3% in September, meaning this month’s early performance is considerably stronger than normal.
Segment results showed mixed movement. Luxury vehicles led year-over-year gains at 2.1%, while SUVs were up 0.9% and trucks 0.5%. Mid-size cars inched higher by 0.3%, but compact cars posted a steep 4.6% decline. Compared with August, mid-size cars outperformed with a 1.0% increase, while SUVs slipped 0.7% and luxury vehicles fell 1.2%.
Electric vehicles continue to be a bright spot, with values up 5.5% year-over-year in early September, compared with 1.4% growth for non-EVs. Against August levels, EVs held steady while non-EVs slipped 0.7%.
Market activity also showed resiliency. The Manheim Market Report’s Three-Year-Old Index declined 0.5% in early September, slightly less than the long-term average decrease of 0.6%. Sales conversion rates averaged 60.3%, edging higher than last year but easing from late August. Wholesale supply remained steady at 25 days as of Sept. 15, unchanged from August and one day lower than a year earlier.
Consumer confidence, however, showed signs of strain. The University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped 4.8% in early September and is now down 21% year-over-year. Expectations for long-term inflation also climbed, while consumers’ view of current buying conditions for vehicles weakened further. A similar decline was observed in Morning Consult’s daily index, which fell 2.9% through mid-September.
Gasoline prices offered little relief, averaging $3.19 per gallon by Sept. 15, down 1% from a year earlier but still up 4% for 2025.
The combination of resilient wholesale values, strong EV demand, and tight supply continues to shape dealer strategies as the industry heads into the final weeks of the third quarter.
