Welcome to this special on-location coverage of the 2026 J.D. Power Auto Summit. CBT News speaks with Tyson Jominy, senior vice president of OEM customer success at J.D. Power, to address industry concerns, clarify misinformation around 2026 projections, and outline the tailwinds dealers can leverage in the months ahead.
Key Takeaways:
- Despite negative sentiment in parts of the industry, Jominy emphasized that 2026 is expected to perform similarly to 2025. Inventory levels remain controlled at roughly 2 million units, incentive spending is moderate at about 6% of MSRP, and fleet sales remain restrained. Dealers are not facing oversupply, and margins, while tighter than peak pandemic levels, remain healthy. The market is operating in a balanced, mid-cycle environment with multiple levers available to manage retail pressure.
- Limited new-vehicle sales over the past five years have constrained used-car supply, keeping prices elevated and supporting dealer profitability. Certified pre-owned vehicles remain a strong substitute for new models and help retain brand loyalty. At the same time, lease maturities are expected to rise approximately 50% beginning in Q2, bringing a wave of customers back into showrooms. Leasing also offers a payment advantage of roughly $150 per month compared to financing, helping address affordability concerns.
- With average new-vehicle payments near $750 to $800 per month and 84-month financing becoming more common, affordability remains a structural challenge. Automakers can respond by offering better value within each segment through lower-priced trims and enhanced content. Policy shifts favoring internal combustion engine vehicles may improve dealer profitability on both front-end and service revenue, though aging ICE portfolios may require accelerated refresh cycles to remain competitive.
