On the Dash:
- U.S. light-vehicle sales rose 3.5% year-over-year in September, reaching a 16.4 million SAAR.
- BEVs reached a record 11.8% market share as buyers took advantage of expiring tax credits.
- Industry forecasts now project 15.9 million total light-vehicle sales for 2025.
New light-vehicle sales in the United States climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.4 million units in September 2025, up 3.5% from a year earlier, as buyers rushed to purchase electric vehicles before the federal EV tax credit expired on September 30. According to the NADA’s September Market Beat report, the strong performance was driven in part by “pull-ahead” demand ahead of the credit deadline.
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales reached a record 11.8% of all new vehicles sold, nearly two percentage points higher than in August. BEVs also recorded a 24.1% year-over-year increase in the third quarter and accounted for 8.4% of total new vehicle sales through the first nine months of 2025, up 0.7 percentage points from the same period last year. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models, which were also eligible for the federal incentive, maintained a flat 1.7% monthly market share and 1.8% year-to-date share.
Analysts said the strong September performance reflected consumers rushing to take advantage of the final days of the tax credit. The surge helped offset slowing growth earlier in the quarter as automakers faced tariff pressures and rising production costs.
According to J.D. Power, average incentive spending per new vehicle rose slightly from August to $3,116, with more funds directed toward EVs. Incentive spending represented 6.1% of the average vehicle’s sticker price, compared with 4.8% for non-EVs.
Inventory levels also showed modest improvement. Combined dealer and in-transit light-vehicle inventory reached 2.65 million units by the end of September, up 6.2% from August but still 5.9% below the same period last year.
Automakers, including GM, Ford, Toyota, Stellantis, Honda, and Tesla, all gained market share through September, while Nissan and Volkswagen reported declines. Crossovers continued to dominate the market with a 49.2% share, followed by pickups at 18.7%.
Despite ongoing concerns about tariffs and upcoming model-year price hikes, industry analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Given the stronger-than-expected performance through the third quarter, the full-year 2025 light-vehicle sales forecast has been raised to 15.9 million units.
