On the Dash:
- Volkswagen now expects a 2026 operating return on sales of up to 1%.
- A €6 billion ($6.9 billion) Porsche goodwill impairment leads €10 billion ($11.5 billion) in one-time effects.
- Porsche SE cut the top of its 2026 adjusted result forecast to €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion).
Volkswagen Group cut its 2026 profit outlook Friday and now expects an operating return on sales of up to 1%. That compares with a previous forecast of 4.0% to 5.5%, and analysts on average expected 4.1%.
The group also flagged about €10 billion ($11.5 billion) in one-time effects this year. About €9 billion ($10.3 billion) of that will land in the second half. The largest piece is a non-cash goodwill impairment of about €6 billion ($6.9 billion) tied to Porsche. That charge will hit third-quarter operating profit.
On Friday, Porsche shared its updated long-term plans with Volkswagen, prompting the automaker to revise its valuation assumptions. These include a medium-term estimate of 10% to 15%, Porsche said.
As CBT News previously reported, Porsche has confirmed 3,900 job cuts and agreed to cut another 5,000 jobs by 2035. Volkswagen said last year that Porsche’s delayed electric vehicle rollout would cost it about $6 billion.
Another €2 billion ($2.3 billion) in charges covers three items. They include an expanded early retirement program and the planned sale of Volkswagen Osnabrück. The third is impairments on assets of fully consolidated companies in China. Adjusted for those effects, return on sales would be about 4%, VW said. That is near the low end of the original range.
China’s auto market has slumped by 20% with no recovery in sight, according to an interview with Volkswagen’s Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer Arno Antlitz. Chinese manufacturers are also sending low-cost exports into Europe, which raises price pressure there. Demand for battery-electric vehicles has accelerated, partly because of the geopolitical situation and sharply rising gasoline prices. VW earns significantly less on those vehicles than on internal combustion engines.
Volkswagen kept its cash flow outlook. It still expects net cash flow of €3 billion to €6 billion ($3.4 billion to $6.9 billion) for 2026. Group sales revenue is forecast at about €315 billion ($361.8 billion), down from €321.9 billion ($369.7 billion) in 2025.
Porsche Automobil Holding SE (Porsche SE) also lowered its outlook Friday. The holding company owns about 31.9% of Volkswagen AG. It cut its forecast for the 2026 adjusted group result after tax. The new range is minus €0.5 billion (minus $0.6 billion) to plus €1.5 billion ($1.7 billion). The prior range was €1.5 billion to €3.5 billion ($1.7 billion to $4.0 billion).
Porsche SE said the Volkswagen impairment does not affect its own result because of earlier adjustments.
