On the Dash:
- Used-vehicle wholesale prices fell in September, with the Manheim index down 1.1% from August to 205.9 and 0.6% below a year ago.
- Cox Automotive cut its 2026 forecast for the index to a gain of about 0.2%, down from 2% in July.
- EV values rose while diesel and large truck and SUV values weakened.
Wholesale used-vehicle prices fell more than normal in September, and Cox Automotive lowered its full-year outlook as a result.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index dropped to 205.9, according to Cox Automotive. That is down 1.1% from August and 0.6% below September 2025 on a mix, mileage and seasonally adjusted basis. Non-adjusted prices fell 1.3% from August and 1.2% from a year ago. A typical September brings a non-adjusted decline of about 0.3%. The index fell 1.95% from July through September.
Year-end forecast cut
Cox now expects the index to finish 2026 up about 0.2% from last year. In July, it forecast a 2% gain. The new figure sits below last year’s 0.4% increase and the long-term average of 2.3%.
Values ran stronger than normal in the first half of the year. They weakened in the third quarter as fuel costs and interest rates climbed. “We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations, and as September closed, depreciation was steeper than we typically see this time of year,” said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive.
September was also the first in decades without an Atlantic hurricane. Storms usually bring a bump in used-vehicle demand that softens depreciation. The missing bump may partly explain the steeper drop, Robb said.
Fuel prices split the market
Fuel costs are changing which vehicles hold their value. The EV Index rose 4.3% from a year ago and 0.6% from August. The Non-EV Index fell 1.6% from a year ago and 1.7% from August. Demand and values for large pickups and SUVs declined. Older, more affordable vehicles depreciated less.
Diesel vehicles make up just over 3% of wholesale inventory. With diesel at record highs, their days’ supply rose to 39 days, 27% higher than a year ago. EV days’ supply fell as sustained high gas prices pushed more buyers toward fuel-efficient used vehicles.
EV supply keeps growing
Wholesale EV sales at Manheim rose 22% from the second quarter and 45% from a year ago. EVs reached a record 4.9% of Manheim transactions in the third quarter, up from 3.9% in the second. Used retail EV sales totaled about 124,000 units, the highest on record and up 11.4% from a year ago. That is still about 2.8% of all used retail sales.
Off-lease supply is building too. EVs made up about 10% of off-lease supply in the first half of 2026. Cox expects about 16% in the second half and about 19% by summer 2027. Total off-lease volume is rising from about 190,000 units a month to about 220,000, which Cox expects to lift wholesale volume about 3% in 2027.
