Automakers and suppliers have lost at least 18 months of strategic product planning due to ongoing shifting tariffs under the Trump administration, according to S&P Global. Michael Robinet, vice president of forecast strategy at the research firm, issued the warning during a presentation at WardAuto’s AutoTech 2025, calling the tariffs a serious blow to U.S. competitiveness in the global auto market, particularly in the electric vehicle sector.
“We are shooting ourselves in the foot… with respect to having to deal with these short-term issues and navigate them,” Robinet said, referring to the unpredictable pace of new tariffs. He noted that Chinese automakers, who already hold an advantage in the EV race, are continuing to gain ground without facing similar trade policy instability.
S&P Global, which provides economic forecasting to the auto industry, has been forced to update its guidance weekly to keep up with shifting White House trade decisions. These changes include the recent doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, adding further cost pressure on automakers already managing supply chain realignments and EV production targets.
The Trump administration’s 25% tariff on vehicles built in Canada and Mexico has prompted some manufacturers to consider relocating production to the United States. However, Robinet cautioned that such moves are far from simple, especially on the short timelines being imposed. He added that Asian automakers such as Toyota, Honda and Hyundai have little to no excess production capacity in the U.S., leaving only Nissan with significant unused factory space—though demand for Nissan vehicles lags behind its competitors.
Battery-electric vehicle makers face an additional layer of uncertainty. China controls 90% of the rare-earth metals needed for EV batteries and motors, making ongoing trade tensions especially risky for U.S. and European manufacturers.
Robinet said many automakers are fast-tracking production and consumers are accelerating purchases to stay ahead of expected price increases and possible rollbacks of federal EV tax incentives.
Forecasting challenges are compounded by broader economic concerns. “We are still convinced that inflation is going to rear its ugly head,” Robinet said, citing the impact of tariffs on interest rates, unemployment and GDP.
One of the biggest regulatory blind spots, according to Robinet, is that automakers have never been required to track value-added content on vehicles built in North America, making it difficult to apply new tariff rules retroactively.
Robinet said many automakers are delaying investment and production decisions due to the uncertainty. With no clear regulatory direction or reliable profitability outlook, companies are opting to postpone planning until the environment stabilizes.
