On the Dash:
- Dealer inventory has reached an 82-day supply, above the industry’s 75-day target.
- Toyota and Lexus run lean at 35 and 41 days, limiting buyer negotiating room.
- Jeep, Dodge and Ram hold 149 days or more, adding price pressure on those dealers.
Dealer inventory is building heading into the colder months, with the average brand now holding an 82-day supply of new vehicles, according to Cox Automotive.
That sits above the 75-day level the industry has long treated as a target, adding pressure on new-vehicle prices to remain close to record territory. The average buyer paid $50,562 in September, which is just $52 shy of the December 2025 record, according to Kelley Blue Book.
Prices have peaked in December in recent years, and Kelley Blue Book expects them to continue rising into winter. Increased supply could help keep inflation in check, though supply has tightened before. New-vehicle inventory fell to a 75-day supply in July, down from a revised 82 days at the start of the month, as sales rose 8.5% from June.
The 75-day rule of thumb breaks down to 60 days on dealer lots and another 15 days on order or in transit. Carrying fewer vehicles than that can leave a store without the right mix of features and colors. Carrying more adds cost, because dealers pay interest on lot inventory through floorplan loans.
The 82-day average hides a wide gap between brands. For instance, Toyota has a 35-day supply and Lexus 41 days, leaving buyers with little room to negotiate at those dealerships this month. Jeep, Dodge and Ram are at the other end of the range, with at least 149 days of supply each. Shoppers have more negotiating leverage at those brands.
The brand-level numbers matter more than the national average. Dealers at overstocked brands carry floorplan costs longer and should expect shoppers to push harder on price. Dealers at lean brands hold the pricing advantage, but a thin supply raises the risk of missing the trim, color or feature combination a customer wants.
Stores with a supply near the 75-day mark are best positioned to balance selection against carrying costs as year-end approaches.
