Auto sales during the first half of 2025 were strong, primarily driven by a surge of pull-ahead purchases before President Trump’s auto import tariffs went into effect in April. But as inventory tightens, prices fluctuate and affordability concerns grow, signs point to a more challenging second half of the year. A recent Cars Commerce report outlines the key trends that defined the early part of 2025 and what dealers and consumers should anticipate in the months ahead.
Here’s why it matters:
Tariff-fueled fears triggered an unnatural pull-ahead nationwide, temporarily affecting showroom tariffs and sales. However, now that pre-tariff inventory is dwindling, dealers face the dual challenge of rising vehicle costs and softening demand—particularly in the entry-level segment.
Entry-level and mid-range vehicles are becoming increasingly difficult to source due to tariffs and changes in automaker production. Dealers that rely on volume from sub-$30K price points may struggle to meet affordability expectations.
In addition, the federal EV tax credit is set to expire at the end of September. It’s a key affordability tool for customers and a primary driver behind EV adoption. On average, EVs are about $16,000 more than their ICE counterparts. Without the incentive, EV inventory may sit on dealer lots longer, impacting inventory turnover.
Key takeaways:
- Triffs fueled early-year auto sales but now threaten affordability
New-vehicle sales rose 3.9% year-over-year during the first half of 2025, driven by pre-tariff buying in March and April. However, as pre-tariff inventory shrinks, prices are rising, especially for foreign-built vehicles. - Used inventory boosted due to a surge of trade-ins
The buying frenzy in March and April boosted used inventory by about 2% year-over-year, and average day on the lot fell to 52 days. - EV demand challenged as federal tax credit nears expiration
The $7,500 EV tax credit, essential for making EVs more affordable, is set to expire in September. On average, EVs cost around $16,000 more than their ICE counterparts, and this incentive helps bridge that affordability gap. Without this tax credit, the adoption of EVs may slow down, and it could impact inventory turnover. - Entry-level vehicle inventory continues to shrink
Vehicles under $30K made up just 13.6% of new inventory in H1 2025, down from 38% in 2019. 92% of these vehicles are built outside the U.S., making them tariff-sensitive. - Tariff impact is beginning to show
The average vehicle price increased by $97 between January and July. However, the rise varied widely depending on the vehicle’s country of origin. Imports from the U.K. saw the most substantial increase, with prices rising by over $10,000. In contrast, vehicles imported from China, Canada and South Korea dropped in price.
