On the Dash:
- Credit card balances are projected to grow 2.3% in 2026.
- Credit card delinquencies are expected to remain stable at 2.57%.
- Delinquencies for auto, mortgage, and personal loans are forecast to rise slightly.
TransUnion expects credit card balances to rise 2.3% year over year in 2026, marking the slowest annual increase in more than a decade outside the pandemic. Balances are projected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of next year, up from $1.16 trillion in 2025. The outlook reflects cautious consumer spending, persistent economic uncertainty, and tighter underwriting by lenders.
Despite rising prices and fluctuating interest rates, serious credit card delinquencies are projected to remain stable, with the share of consumers 90 or more days past due expected to edge up only one basis point to 2.57%. TransUnion notes that this stability is due to disciplined credit management by households and conservative lending strategies. Analysts see the modest growth and steady delinquencies as indicators of resilient consumer credit behavior.
After several years of elevated growth, credit card balances climbed 18.5% in 2022 and 12.6% in 2023 before slowing to mid-single-digit gains. Lenders are cautiously expanding access for riskier segments while prioritizing account management to limit losses. Inflation is expected to settle near 2.45%, and unemployment could rise slightly to 4.5% by late 2026, which may strain some household budgets even as anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts ease borrowing costs.
Delinquencies across other credit products are expected to increase only slightly. Auto loans 60 or more days past due are forecast at 1.54%, continuing a gradual five-year rise. Mortgage delinquencies are projected to climb to 1.65%, influenced partly by higher unemployment. Unsecured personal loan delinquencies are expected to reach 3.75% next year.
Delinquency growth remains measured and consumers appear to be managing finances reasonably well, but TransUnion will continue monitoring trends for signs of broader improvement.
