On the Dash:
- U.S. new-vehicle sales in November are forecast to fall 8% year-over-year due to higher prices and slowing EV demand.
- EV and plug-in hybrid sales have dropped sharply since the federal tax credit expired at the end of September.
- All major vehicle segments are expected to post year-over-year declines, with the steepest drops in car categories.
U.S. new-vehicle sales are expected to decline in November as higher prices and weakening electric vehicle demand weigh on the market, according to a new Cox Automotive forecast. The company projects an 8% year-over-year drop in sales volume, with an estimated 1.27 million vehicles sold for the month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is forecast to reach 15.7 million, which is higher than October’s 15.3 million pace but lower than the 16.5 million level posted a year ago.
The sales slowdown was expected in the fourth quarter, as rising vehicle prices and the expiration of federal EV tax credits reduced buyer urgency. Many shoppers rushed to purchase EVs in the summer to secure the $7,500 tax credit before it expired in late September. With incentives gone and more tariffed inventory arriving, transaction prices have drifted higher and sales momentum has cooled.
Most major segments are forecast to post year-over-year declines. Mid-size car sales are expected to fall 17.2% to 60,000 units, while compact cars are projected to drop 15.3% to 80,000 units. Compact SUVs, the largest segment by volume, are forecast to decline 6.8% year-over-year, although their month-over-month change is expected to remain flat. Full-size pickup trucks are projected to slip 1.6% year-over-year, while mid-size SUVs are expected to fall 0.7%. All other segments combined are forecast to drop 10.5% year-over-year.
The EV market shift has played a central role in the broader sales decline. After the strongest quarter on record for EVs in Q3, demand began to fall sharply in October. The decline is primarily driven by the loss of the federal tax credit and a market still adjusting to higher EV prices. As EV and plug-in hybrid sales have pulled back, average transaction prices across the industry have also declined.
Cox Automotive expects the slower sales pace to continue through the remainder of the year and potentially into early next year as the market stabilizes.
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