Cox Automotive’s latest forecast anticipates that U.S. new vehicle sales for August will remain relatively stable when adjusted for significant seasonality. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) is projected to reach 15.4 million units, a slight increase from last August’s 15.3 million but down from July’s strong 15.8 million pace. July’s surge was partly due to a rebound from a dealership software disruption that affected the market in late June.
August’s sales volume is expected to rise by over 8% year-over-year and increase by 12% from July, potentially making it the highest sales month of the year thus far. This increase is partly driven by having 28 selling days this August—three more than in July and one more than last year—as well as five weekends compared to four last year.
Following the software issues in June and the subsequent recovery in July, new vehicle inventory levels are expected to stabilize in August. Introducing model year 2025 vehicles has led to reports that over 40% of dealer inventories consist of these new models. Automakers offer various incentives, including 0% financing and up to $10,000 in bonuses for 2024 models, to clear out existing stock and support higher sales.
Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough noted, “The August new-vehicle sales pace is expected to fall within the 15 to 16 million range, consistent with monthly sales trends over the past two years. The Labor Day period traditionally sees significant sales promotions, which should further boost volume this year. Higher sales are anticipated with 28 selling days and the extended holiday weekend.”
Overall, the forecast suggests that August’s sales figures will benefit from favorable conditions and promotions, contributing to a strong month for the automotive market.
