On the Dash:
- Despite the fourth-quarter miss, Ford’s F-Series trucks and Ford Pro commercial fleet operations are expected to drive profitability, signaling stability for dealers reliant on these high-demand segments.
- The “Model e” electric vehicle unit continues to post significant projected losses, highlighting ongoing uncertainty for dealers investing in EV inventory and customer demand.
- Unexpected tariff costs and the Novelis aluminum plant disruption illustrate how trade policy and supply chain volatility can directly impact dealer pricing, inventory, and margins.
Ford Motor reported its largest quarterly earnings miss in four years in its fourth-quarter results released Tuesday, citing unexpected tariff costs and supplier disruptions, even as executives projected a financial rebound in 2026.
The Detroit automaker posted adjusted earnings per share of 13 cents, well below the 19 cents expected by analysts, according to consensus estimates compiled by LSEG. Automotive revenue came in at $42.4 billion, slightly above expectations of $41.83 billion. The 32% EPS miss was the company’s first quarterly shortfall since 2024 and its largest since 2021.
The earnings miss was largely driven by roughly $900 million in unexpected tariff-related costs, which reduced fourth-quarter EBIT from $7.7 billion to $6.8 billion. Ford was also affected by the lingering effects of a fire at a Novelis aluminum supplier plant in New York, which supplies aluminum for high-margin F-Series pickups. The facility is not expected to be fully operational until midyear, which will contribute to a $2 billion impact in the second half of 2025.
CFO Sherry House noted that while Ford anticipates roughly $1 billion in tariff-related benefits in 2026, those gains will be offset this year by higher aluminum sourcing costs. Net tariff exposure is expected to remain roughly flat at $2 billion in 2026.
Despite the Q4 miss, executives emphasized that the company’s underlying business remains on solid footing. Full-year 2025 revenue reached a record $187.3 billion, up 1% from $185 billion in 2024. Fourth-quarter revenue totaled $45.9 billion, down 5% from a year earlier.
On an unadjusted basis, Ford posted a net loss of $8.2 billion for the year, its largest since the Great Recession, including $15.5 billion in special charges during Q4 tied to the company’s pullback from its all-electric vehicle plans. Q4 net loss was $11.1 billion, or $2.77 per share, compared with net income of $1.8 billion, or 45 cents per share, a year earlier.
Looking ahead, Ford expects stronger performance in 2026, with adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion, up from $6.8 billion in 2025, and adjusted free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion, compared with $3.5 billion last year. Capital expenditures are projected between $9.5 billion and $10.5 billion.
At the business unit level, the “Ford Pro” fleet and commercial division is forecast to generate $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in pre-tax earnings, while the traditional internal combustion “Blue” business is projected at $4 billion to $4.5 billion. Losses in the “Model e” electric vehicle unit are expected to continue, with projected losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion as Ford recalibrates its EV strategy.
For dealers, the results underscore both the resilience of Ford’s core truck and fleet businesses and the ongoing challenges tied to trade policy, supplier volatility, and EV investment. While near-term pressures weighed on fourth-quarter performance, the automaker signaled confidence that its core operations will help stabilize earnings and cash flow heading into 2026.
