Cox Automotive forecasts that new-vehicle sales in June will reach a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million units. That marks a decline from May’s 15.6 million pace and a significant drop from the average of 17.5 million in March and April. While June’s sales pace is slightly higher than the 15.0 million level recorded a year ago, total sales volume is expected to fall 6.3% year-over-year and 15.2% month-over-month.
Despite the slowdown, the second quarter is projected to finish 1.7% higher than Q2 2024, with approximately 4.18 million units sold. That total also surpasses the 3.92 million sales recorded in Q1. However, with more selling days in Q2, the SAAR of 16.1 million trails the Q1 SAAR of 16.4 million, signaling a cooling trend as the market adjusts from a spring sales surge driven in part by tariff-related pull-ahead demand.
Tighter inventories and limited discounting have contributed to the June deceleration. Dealers are increasingly cautious about margin pressures and consumers remain highly price-sensitive. As tariffed inventory replaces older stock through the summer, prices are expected to rise, potentially placing further strain on affordability and slowing demand in the coming months.
Cox Automotive has slightly raised its full-year forecast to 15.7 million units, up from its Q1 estimate of 15.6 million, though still below 2024’s results and far short of its original 2025 forecast of 16.3 million.
Among automakers, General Motors stands out as a clear leader, with first-half 2025 sales projected to exceed 1.4 million units, representing a year-over-year increase of more than 12%, driven by double-digit growth across all its brands. Hyundai also saw strong results and is expected to continue gaining ground.
Industry consolidation is evident, as the five largest automakers—GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai and Honda—are projected to increase their market share while smaller brands struggle to keep pace.
