As 2024 kicks off, the automotive industry faces a shifting landscape marked by fluctuating sales, EV mandates, and new tariffs. Kevin Tynan, director of research at The Presidio Group, joins us in today’s episode of Inside Automotive to break down early-year trends, inventory levels, and the broader economic factors shaping the auto market.
January and February sales figures showed mixed results, with some brands like Hyundai posting strong numbers while others struggled. Tynan notes that the industry typically experiences a post-holiday slowdown due to year-end sales pushes, seasonal factors, and colder weather. Despite the sluggish start, he projects a full-year sales range of 16 to 16.2 million units, emphasizing that pricing stability and margins remain key indicators of auto market health.
Inventory levels, currently hovering around three million units, are not excessively high, suggesting manufacturers are maintaining production discipline. Tynan points out that pre-pandemic levels were far worse, sometimes reaching four times monthly sales, whereas today’s two-to-one ratio is much healthier.
On the EV front, sales grew 7.3% year-over-year, but Tynan expresses skepticism about meeting aggressive zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets. States like New Jersey, which aim for 43% ZEV sales by 2027, would require unsustainable growth rates to meet those mandates. Additionally, any civil penalties imposed on manufacturers for failing to meet the requirements are likely to be passed on to consumers.
The recent enactment of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports adds another layer of complexity. Tynan explains that while these measures are intended to protect domestic jobs, they will also drive up vehicle costs for consumers. The impact extends beyond the automotive industry, affecting global supply chains and manufacturing dynamics. Uncertainties around pricing and tariffs may drive some consumers to purchase sooner rather than later to avoid potential price hikes.
Looking ahead, Tynan sees 2025 as a year filled with economic and geopolitical volatility, making long-term forecasting especially difficult. With fluctuating consumer demand, regulatory shifts, and trade policies in flux, dealers and manufacturers will need to remain agile in order to adapt to the challenges.
"So, you can have your affordable vehicle, but it can't be manufactured here. So there go the jobs. If you want the jobs here and you want to earn as much as you can, there goes your affordable vehicle." – Kevin Tynan
